- The Bank of Canada shifted to a more hawkish tone that boosted the Canadian dollar.
- The dollar was weak after US inflation data came in line with expectations.
- Traders increased the likelihood of a December Fed rate cut from 85% to 97%.
The USD/CAD outlook shows a stronger loonie after Wednesday’s Bank of Canada policy meeting, where policymakers struck a slightly cautious tone. Meanwhile, the dollar was fragile as US inflation figures supported bets for a December Fed rate cut.
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The Bank of Canada cut rates by 50-bps on Wednesday but shifted to a more hawkish tone that boosted the Canadian dollar. Markets had expected a massive rate cut. However, the outcome should have weakened the Canadian dollar.
Nevertheless, the central bank governor said that future rate cuts will likely be gradual, hinting at a cautious outlook. Moreover, he noted that the threats of high tariffs on Canadian exports to the US have created uncertainty about the outlook for the economy. Meanwhile, experts believe the tariffs will prompt the Bank of Canada to further lower borrowing costs. Tariffs will hurt the economy, piling pressure on policymakers to spur growth.
On the other hand, the dollar was weak after US inflation data came in line with expectations, boosting bets for a December Fed rate cut. The CPI increased by 0.3% in November, above the previous reading of 0.2%. Meanwhile, the annual figure increased by 2.7%, above the previous reading of 2.6%. However, since it was in line with forecasts, traders increased the likelihood of a December rate cut from 85% to 97%, weighing on the greenback.
USD/CAD key events today
- US core PPI m/m
- US PPI m/m
- US unemployment claims
USD/CAD technical outlook: Bulls corrected to retests 30-SMA
On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has pulled back to the 30-SMA support after making new highs above the 1.4150 resistance level. However, the uptrend remains intact since the price is still on the upper side of the SMA. At the same time, although bears have pushed the price lower, it has been a weak move with small-bodied candles and wicks. Therefore, it is likely a brief corrective move.
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If bulls resurface at the 30-SMA, the price will bounce higher to target the 1.4201 key level. A break above this level would make a new high, continuing the bullish trend. A reversal will only occur if bears breach the 30-SMA and start making lower highs and lows.
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