- Inflation in the UK rose by 2.3%, above estimates of a 2.2% increase.
- The Bank of England will likely take a less aggressive approach to rate cuts.
- The US dollar remained steady after a rally on Tuesday due to safe-haven inflows.
The GBP/USD forecast shows a better-than-expected reading for UK inflation, which has briefly boosted the pound. Meanwhile, the dollar remained steady after rallying in the previous session amid fears of an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war.
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Data on Wednesday revealed that inflation in the UK rose by 2.3%, above estimates of a 2.2% increase. Moreover, it was higher than the previous month when prices increased by 1.7%. On the other hand, services inflation rose by 5.0%, lowering expectations for Bank of England rate cuts. As a result, the pound jumped.
Markets are pricing fewer rate cuts in the UK in 2025 than other major economies. The new government recently read a budget that will likely increase inflation and economic growth. Therefore, the Bank of England will likely take a less aggressive approach to rate cuts.
Meanwhile, the US dollar remained steady after a rally on Tuesday due to safe-haven inflows. A nuclear scare from Russia raised fears of an escalation in the Ukraine war. As a result, traders sought safety in currencies like the dollar and the yen. Meanwhile, risky currencies like the pound collapsed.
The risk of an escalation in Ukraine and Trump’s policy changes will likely keep the dollar on solid ground. Trump’s policy proposals have changed the outlook for the US economy and inflation. Experts expect robust growth, increasing consumer prices and complicating the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle.
Furthermore, incoming data will shape the outlook for future rate cuts. Currently, markets are pricing a 60% chance of a Fed rate cut in December.
GBP/USD key events today
GBP/USD technical forecast: Bulls fail to show strength above 30-SMA
On the technical side, the GBP/USD price trades slightly above the 30-SMA, a sign that bulls have challenged the downtrend. However, the price made a weak break above the SMA and bears seem ready to take back control. At the same time, the RSI trades below 50, indicating strong bearish momentum.
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The price broke above the SMA after the RSI made a bullish divergence. However, if bulls cannot sustain an uptrend, the price will likely break below the SMA to retest the 1.2600 support level.
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