- Market participants eagerly await Trump’s inauguration.
- Trump has proposed import tariffs of at least 10% on all imported goods.
- Data on Thursday revealed a smaller-than-expected increase in US retail sales.
The EUR/USD outlook suggests further weakness for the euro amid diverging economic outlooks between the Eurozone and the US. At the same time, the ECB is set to implement more rate cuts this year than the Fed to stem any further weakness in the Eurozone economy.
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Market participants eagerly await Trump’s inauguration next week, which will mark a significant shift in the US. Trump has proposed several policy changes, including tax cuts and import tariffs, which experts believe will boost the US economy and increase consumer price pressures. Meanwhile, an import tariff of at least 10% on all imported goods will hurt its trading partners, like the Eurozone. Therefore, analysts are predicting weak economic growth in the bloc in 2025.
Trump will cause a significant shift in the outlook for economic growth and monetary policy in these two regions. The Fed will take a gradual approach, with traders pricing only two rate cuts this year. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll earlier in the week revealed that the ECB might implement four rate cuts before July this year. The aggressive approach will likely reduce the impact of tariffs on the economy.
Elsewhere, data on Thursday revealed a smaller-than-expected increase in US retail sales. However, it was not enough to significantly change the outlook for Fed rate cuts.
EUR/USD key events today
Market participants do not expect high-impact reports from the Eurozone or the US. Consequently, the price might end the week quietly.
EUR/USD technical outlook: Bulls emerge after the recent swing high
On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has paused near the 30-SMA support after meeting the 1.0350 resistance level. The bias is bullish since the price trades above the SMA with the RSI slightly above 50, in bullish territory.
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However, when bulls met the 1.0350 resistance, a strong rejection led to a bearish engulfing candle. This was a sign that bears were ready to take back control. Still, the price must break below the 30-SMA and the 1.0200 support level to confirm this. Such an outcome would signal a continuation of the downtrend.
On the other hand, if EUR/USD fails to break below the 30-SMA, it might retest the 1.0350 resistance, aiming to make a higher high. A break above this resistance would allow bulls to reach the 1.0450 level.
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