- Most economists expect the RBA to keep rates unchanged next week.
- Market participants are pricing a 70% chance of an RBA rate cut in April.
- Forecasts show the US economy added slightly under 200,000 jobs in November.
The AUD/USD outlook shows brief bullish momentum for the Aussie after most economists forecast the first RBA rate cut in Q2 of next year. Meanwhile, there was uncertainty about the greenback as market participants geared up for the US nonfarm payrolls report.
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A Reuters poll on Friday revealed that most economists expect the RBA to keep rates unchanged at the policy meeting on Tuesday. At the same time, most do not expect a rate cut until the second quarter of next year.
Policymakers have maintained a cautious outlook due to the robust labor market. At the same time, core inflation in Australia has remained high at 3.5%. Market participants are pricing a 70% chance of a rate cut in April. Meanwhile, economists believe the Aussie will gain next year because the RBA will implement fewer rate cuts than the Fed.
On the other hand, the traders remained cautious, awaiting the US monthly employment report. In the previous session, unemployment claims unexpectedly rose from 215,000 to 224,000, raising fears of weaker demand in the labor sector.
However, all focus is on the looming NFP report. Forecasts show the US economy added slightly under 200,000 jobs in November, a significant surge from the previous month’s reading. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate might increase from 4.1% to 4.2%.
An upbeat report will show resilience in the labor sector, which might call for more caution among Fed policymakers. On the other hand, if employment is weaker than expected, the dollar might collapse. At the same time, Fed rate cut bets will increase.
AUD/USD key events today
- US average hourly earnings m/m
- US non-farm employment change
- US unemployment rate
AUD/USD technical outlook: Brief pullback meets hurdle at 0.6450
On the technical side, AUD/USD bears have resurfaced at the 0.6450 key level and might push the price back to the 0.6400 support level. After breaking out of consolidation, the price initially paused at the 0.6400 support. Here, bulls took the chance to retest the 0.6450 level as resistance.
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The pair held firm, and bears made an engulfing candlestick pattern, signaling a likely continuation of the downtrend. However, the price must make a new low below 0.6400 to confirm this.
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