- Data on Thursday revealed that job growth in Australia surged in November.
- Markets slashed bets for a February RBA rate cut from 68% to 55%.
- The US CPI increased by 0.3% in November and 2.7% annually, as expected.
The AUD/USD forecast made a sharp bullish turn on Thursday after a surprise jump in Australia’s employment. Meanwhile, the greenback dropped after inflation figures met expectations, raising the likelihood of a December Fed rate cut.
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Data on Thursday revealed that job growth in Australia surged in November. The economy added 35,600 jobs compared to estimates of 26,000. At the same time, the unemployment rate dropped from 4.1% to an eight-month low of 3.9%. Meanwhile, economists had expected it to increase to 4.2%.
The report led to a decline in bets for a February RBA rate cut from 68% to 55%. As a result, the Australian dollar soared against the dollar. The move was a sudden reversal from new lows hit in the previous session. Initially, markets had raised the likelihood of a February RBA cut after a slightly dovish policy meeting. Policymakers acknowledged recent progress in lowering inflation, pushing the Aussie down. However, with such a resilient labor market, they might resume their cautious tone.
Meanwhile, the US dollar fell after data in the previous session showed inflation coming in line with expectations. The CPI increased by 0.3% in November and 2.7% annually. Since there was no surprise, markets increased the likelihood of a December Fed rate cut from 55% to 68%. However, the increase is also a sign that inflation has stalled above the 2% target, which could slow the Fed next year.
AUD/USD key events today
- US core PPI m/m
- US PPI m/m
AUD/USD technical forecast: Bulls ignite above 30-SMA
On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has rebounded and broken above the 30-SMA, indicating a shift in sentiment. At the same time, the RSI has broken above 50 and now trades in bullish territory. Initially, bears broke below the 0.6375 support level to make a new low in the downtrend.
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However, they could not sustain this move as bulls returned with solid momentum. Nevertheless, the bias remains bearish since the price is in a downtrend pattern with lower highs and lows. To confirm a reversal, the price must break above its resistance trendline and the 0.6450 resistance level to start making higher highs and lows.
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