- Dollar bulls cheered Trump’s pick for US Treasury Secretary.
- Market participants are awaiting the FOMC meeting minutes.
- Data on Friday revealed a sharper-than-expected slowdown in the UK economy.
The GBP/USD forecast suggests further dollar strength after Trump picked Scott Bassent as the next US Treasury Secretary. Meanwhile, due to downbeat economic data, the pound remained fragile after reaching a six-month low on Friday.
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The greenback regained strength on Monday as bulls cheered Trump’s pick for US Treasury Secretary. After Trump’s win, Scott made remarks supporting a stronger dollar and the proposed import tariffs. Therefore, traders believe he will be bullish for the dollar.
Meanwhile, market participants are awaiting more clues for future Fed moves. On Tuesday, the US will release the FOMC meeting minutes, which might shed more light on the December meeting. The meeting came soon after Trump won the election and shifted the outlook for the US economy.
Consequently, policymakers might have assumed a more cautious tone, leading to a decline in Fed rate cut expectations. Currently, markets are pricing a 52% chance of a cut in December. Hawkish minutes might lower this likelihood below 50%, further boosting the dollar.
Meanwhile, the pound was frail after data on Friday revealed a sharper-than-expected slowdown in the UK economy. Notably, retail sales fell by 0.7%, more than the expected 0.3% decline, showing weak consumer spending.
Meanwhile, PMI data showed an unexpected decline in business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors. The manufacturing PMI came in at 48.6, compared to estimates of 50.0. The services PMI was 50.0, below forecasts of 51.9. The downbeat economic data might pressure the Bank of England to cut interest rates.
GBP/USD key events today
Market participants do not expect any key reports from the UK or the US today. Therefore, they will continue to absorb US political developments.
GBP/USD technical forecast: Bearish momentum surges after 30-SMA retest
On the technical side, the GBP/USD price is collapsing after retesting the 30-SMA resistance. At the same time, the RSI is falling far below the 50 mark, indicating stronger bearish momentum. Initially, the downtrend paused at the 1.2500 support level, where the RSI made a bullish divergence.
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The price gapped up as it revisited the 1.2600 resistance and the SMA. After that, bears took back control with a solid candle. Given the strong bearish bias, the price might soon retest the 1.2500 support level and likely break below.
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